NFL playoff picture 2025: Projected 14-team bracket with two weeks left

We simulated the final two weeks to project the full 14-team NFL playoff bracket and seeding

By John Breech

Dec 24, 2025 at 9:46 am ET • 7 min read

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It's Christmas week in the NFL, and several teams around the league hope Santa delivers them a playoff berth.

Heading into Week 16, only two playoff spots had been clinched in the NFL, but that number has now shot up to 10, which means there are still four spots up for grabs as the season heads into Week 17. On top of that, there's also a wide-open race to clinch the No. 1 overall seed in both the NFC and AFC.

With just two weeks left to play, there are still SIX teams that could earn the top seed in the AFC and four teams that are still mathematically alive to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC. With just 32 games left on the regular-season schedule, it should be a wild finish, with several teams soon hoping to celebrate a Merry Clinchmas.

So what's the playoff field going to look like? Glad you asked. We had Stephen Oh of SportsLine simulate the rest of the season so we could figure out who's going to make the playoffs. Not only did Oh project all 14 teams that will make the playoffs, but he also projected the seed each team will end up getting.

Remember, this is just a projection. If you want to see the actual playoff picture, we've got that here. If your favorite team has already been eliminated from postseason contention, then you might be more interested in reading a mock draft, and if that's the case, we have one of those for you right here.

Alright, let's get to the projections.

z-clinched division title
x-clinched playoff berth

AFC playoff projection

Projections via SportsLine

1. x-Denver Broncos (AFC West champion)

Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, Chargers

There are SIX teams still alive for the top seed in the AFC, and the computer thinks Denver will eventually clinch it. The Broncos (12-3) have a 47.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall seed, which puts them well ahead of the Patriots, who are the next best team at 27.2%. One thing working in Denver's favor is that the Broncos will be getting an easier than expected Week 17 game against the Chiefs. With both Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew out, the Chiefs will be down to their third-string QB for their Christmas game against Denver.

2. x-New England Patriots (AFC East champion)

Remaining schedule: at Jets, Dolphins

The Patriots (12-3) can clinch the AFC East as early this week with a win over the Jets combined with a Bills loss to Philadelphia. Even if that doesn't happen, the computer is still pretty convinced that New England will end up winning the division. The Patriots have a 71.1% chance of taking home the division title, compared to just 28.9% for Buffalo.

3. x-Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South champion)

Remaining schedule: at Colts, Titans

The Jaguars (11-4) pulled off a huge win over the Broncos in Week 16, and that has opened the door for them to possibly steal the top seed. For that to happen, Jacksonville would have to win out and then the Patriots and Broncos would both have to lose one of their final two games. It's a long shot scenario, which is why the Jags have just a 9.5% chance of getting the top seed. Even if they don't get the No. 1 seed, they can still clinch the AFC South title as soon as this week with a win over the Colts combined with a Houston loss to the Chargers.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North champion)

Remaining schedule: at Browns, Ravens

The Steelers (9-6) are now in the driver's seat to win the AFC North after pulling off an upset over the Lions on Sunday. The Steelers could win the division before they even take the field this week if Baltimore loses to Green Bay on Saturday night. If the Ravens win, then the Steelers can clinch the division by beating the Browns on Sunday. Of course, if the Ravens win and the Steelers lose, that will set up a Week 18 showdown between Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the AFC North title.

5. x-Buffalo Bills (wild card 1)

Remaining schedule: Eagles, Jets

The Bills (11-4) can still win the AFC East title if they win out and the Patriots lose at least one of their final two games. However, the computer doesn't see that happening, which is why the Bills are locked into the first wild card spot.

6. x-Los Angeles Chargers (wild card 2)

Remaining schedule: Texans, at Denver

The Chargers (11-4) have a very simple path to winning the AFC West: If they win their final two games, they'll take home the division title. Unfortunately for the Chargers, the computer doesn't think they're going to go 2-0. The good news for the Chargers is that they've already clinched a playoff berth, so even if they lose their final two games, they'll still be a part of the postseason.

7. Houston Texans (wild card 3)

Remaining schedule: at Chargers, Colts

The Texans (10-5) can officially clinch a playoff berth on Saturday if they can beat the Chargers. Not only that, but Houston is actually still alive to win the AFC South and clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. The Texans will take the division title if they win out and the Jaguars lose at least one game. To clinch the top seed, the Texans would need a lot of help, which is why they have just a 0.1% chance of that happening.

Other playoff chances: Ravens (6.8%), Colts (1.8%)

Teams eliminated: Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, Browns, Jets, Raiders, Titans

AFC wild card round projection

(7) Texans at (2) Patriots
(6) Chargers at (3) Jaguars
(5) Bills at (4) Steelers
Bye: Broncos

NFC playoff projection

Projections via SportsLine

1. x-Seattle Seahawks (NFC West champion)

Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at 49ers

The race for the No. 1 seed is going to go down the wire, and right now, the computer views the Seahawks (12-3) as the heavy favorite. Seattle has a 44.7% chance of getting the top seed, which is well ahead of the next closest team (the 49ers are at 25.1%). If the Seahawks win their final two games, they'll take home the top seed and the NFC West crown.

2. x-Chicago Bears (NFC North champion)

Remaining schedule: at 49ers, Lions

The surging Bears (11-4) can clinch the NFC North title by winning one of their final two games. They can also get the top seed in the NFC if they go 2-0 down the stretch and Seattle loses at least one of its final two games.

3. z-Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East champion)

Remaining schedule: at Bills, Commanders

With the 49ers' win on Monday night, the Eagles (10-5) were officially eliminated from earning the No. 1 seed. That means Philadelphia is almost certainly going to end up with the second or third seed, and right now, the computer has them heading into the postseason at No. 3 overall. (The Eagles could also get the fourth seed, but that won't be possible after Sunday if they beat the Bills OR if the Panthers lose to the Seahawks.)

4. Carolina Panthers (NFC South champion)

Remaining schedule: Seahawks, at Buccaneers

The computer basically views the NFC South race as a coin toss: The Panthers (8-7) have a 53.5% chance of winning compared to the Buccaneers, who are at 46.5%. The Panthers can clinch the division title this week with a win over Seattle plus a Bucs' loss to the Dolphins. However, if the Panthers lose to the Seahawks, then the division title will be on the line in Week 18 in Tampa Bay.

5. x-Los Angeles Rams (wild card 1)

Remaining schedule: at Falcons, Cardinals

The Rams (11-4) lost a heartbreaker on Thursday against the Seahawks, which is likely going to cost them a shot at the No. 1 overall seed. The Rams can still get the top seed, but they would have to win out and also have the Bears, 49ers and Seahawks all lose one of their final two games.

6. x-San Francisco 49ers (wild card 2)

Remaining schedule: Bears, Seahawks

The 49ers (11-4) will be an interesting team to watch over the next two weeks because they control their own path when it comes to winning the NFC West and clinching the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. If the 49ers win their final two games, they'll go into the playoffs as the NFC's top seed. Unfortunately for San Francisco, the computer doesn't see that happening.

7. Green Bay Packers (wild card 3)

Remaining schedule: Ravens, at Vikings

The Packers (9-5-1) can officially clinch a playoff berth on Saturday if they beat the Ravens. The Packers also have an outside shot at the division title, but they would need to win their final two games and the Bears would have to lose their final two games. The Packers could actually clinch a playoff spot before they even take the field on Saturday if the Lions lose to the Vikings on Christmas.

Other playoff chances: Buccaneers (46.5%), Lions (5.1%)

Teams eliminated: Cowboys, Falcons, Vikings, Commanders, Cardinals, Saints, Giants